Èäåéíûå ðóáåæè ïîñòêðûìñêîãî êîíñåíñóñà Áûçîâ Ë.Ã.Èäåéíûå ðóáåæè ïîñòêðûìñêîãî êîíñåíñóñà // Âûáîðû íà ôîíå Êðûìà: ýëåêòîðàëüíûé öèêë 2016—2018 ãã. è ïåðñïåêòèâû ïîëèòè÷åñêîãî òðàíçèòà / ïîä ðåä. Â. Ôåäîðîâà. — Ì. : ÂÖÈÎÌ, 2018. C. 102-146.ISBN 978-5-906345-18-1Ðàçìåùåíà íà ñàéòå: 28.11.18 Ïîèñêàòü ïîëíûé òåêñò íà Google AcademiaÑñûëêà ïðè öèòèðîâàíèè:Áûçîâ Ë.Ã. Èäåéíûå ðóáåæè ïîñòêðûìñêîãî êîíñåíñóñà // Âûáîðû íà ôîíå Êðûìà: ýëåêòîðàëüíûé öèêë 2016—2018 ãã. è ïåðñïåêòèâû ïîëèòè÷åñêîãî òðàíçèòà / ïîä ðåä. Â. Ôåäîðîâà. — Ì. : ÂÖÈÎÌ, 2018. C. 102-146.Àííîòàöèÿ ìîíîãðàôèè, ïîäãîòîâëåííîé êîëëåêòèâîì ÂÖÈÎÌ è ïîñâÿùåííîé ñîñòîÿâøèìñÿ â ìàðòå 2018 ã. ïðåçèäåíòñêèì âûáîðàì, àâòîðîì ïóáëèêóåòñÿ ãëàâà, â êîòîðîé àíàëèçèðóåòñÿ ñîöèàëüíî-ïîëèòè÷åñêèé êîíòåêñò â Ðîññèè 2012-2018 ãã., îïèñûâàþòñÿ îñíîâíûå òåíäåíöèè è òðåíäû. Îñîáîå âíèìàíèå àâòîð ïðèâëåêàåò ê îòðàæåíèþ â îáùåñòâåííîì ìíåíèè ñîáûòèé 2014 ã., êîãäà ñôîðìèðîâàëñÿ ïîñòêðûìñêèé êîíñåíñóñ, ñóùåñòâåííî ïîâëèÿâøèé íà õîä è ðåçóëüòàòû âûáîðîâ. Êëþ÷åâûå ñëîâà: âûáîðû òåíäåíöèè ñîöèàëüíî-ïîëèòè÷åñêèé êîíòåêñò ïîñòêðûìñêèé êîíñåíñóñ ïðàâàÿ è ëåâàÿ àëüòåðíàòèâû êîíñåðâàòèçì è ëèáåðàëèçì Îãëàâëåíèåñêðûòü îãëàâëåíèåïîêàçàòü îãëàâëåíèåÑîäåðæàíèå Ïðåäèñëîâèå ................................................................................................................................. 7 ×ÀÑÒÜ 1. ÏÎËÈÒÈ×ÅÑÊÀß ÑÎÖÈÎËÎÃÈß ÐÎÑÑÈÉÑÊÈÕ ÂÛÁÎÐΠÌ. Â. Ìàìîíîâ, È. Â. Ãàâðèëîâ, Ì. À. Âÿäðî Ãëàâà I. Ýâîëþöèÿ ïîëèòè÷åñêîãî ïîâåäåíèÿ ðîññèÿí â ýëåêòîðàëüíîì öèêëå 2016—2018 ãã. ................................................................................................. 12 1.1. Ïðåäûäóùèå ïîëèòè÷åñêèå öèêëû (2007—2008 è 2011—2012) ............................ 15 § 1. Âûáîðû 2007—2008 ãã. ........................................................................................................... 15 § 2. Âûáîðû â Ãîñóäàðñòâåííóþ äóìó 2011 ã. ............................................................................... 16 § 3. Âûáîðû ïðåçèäåíòà â 2012 ã. .................................................................................................. 22 § 4. Ïðîòåñòíîå «áåëîëåíòî÷íîå» äâèæåíèå 2011—2012 ãã. ..................................................... 28 § 5. Ïîëèòè÷åñêàÿ ðåôîðìà 2011—2012 ãã. ................................................................................ 34 § 6. Ðåãèîíàëüíûå è ìåñòíûå âûáîðû 2012—2014 ãã. ............................................................... 38 1.2. Âûáîðû â Ãîñóäàðñòâåííóþ äóìó — 2016 .................................................................... 42 § 1. «Åäèíàÿ Ðîññèÿ» ......................................................................................................................... 50 § 2. ÊÏÐÔ ............................................................................................................................................ 55 § 3. ËÄÏÐ ............................................................................................................................................ 57 § 4. «Ñïðàâåäëèâàÿ Ðîññèÿ» ............................................................................................................. 58 § 5. «ßáëîêî» è ëèáåðàëû ................................................................................................................. 60 § 6. Ìàëûå ïàðòèè ............................................................................................................................. 61 § 7. Òåððèòîðèàëüíûé ðàçáðîñ ïàðòèéíûõ ðåçóëüòàòîâ ............................................................... 62 § 8. ßâêà è ëåãèòèìíîñòü íà âûáîðàõ‑2016 .................................................................................. 63 1.3. Âûáîðû ïðåçèäåíòà-2018 ............................................................................................. 65 § 1. Îáùåñòâåííûé çàïðîñ íà ïåðåìåíû è íà íîâûå ïîëèòè÷åñêèå ëèöà ................................. 65 § 2. Çà÷åì èäòè íà âûáîðû, èëè òîðæåñòâî ïîëèòè÷åñêîé ðóòèíû .............................................. 67 § 3. Ïðåäñêàçóåìîñòü ðåçóëüòàòà âûáîðîâ êàê ïðîáëåìà ........................................................... 68 § 4. Àêòèâíîñòü íåñèñòåìíîé îïïîçèöèè. Êàìïàíèÿ çà áîéêîò âûáîðîâ .................................. 70 § 5. «Ñèãíàëüíîå ãîëîñîâàíèå» êàê ãëàâíûé ðèñê äëÿ Â. Ïóòèíà ................................................. 72 § 6. Êòî, åñëè íå Ïóòèí, èëè îïàñåíèÿ è ñòðàõè äåñòàáèëèçàöèè ................................................ 73 § 7. Èíòðèãà âûñîêîé ÿâêè, èëè ìîáèëèçàöèÿ ïðîòèâ ëåãèòèìàöèè .......................................... 75 § 8. Àíàòîìèÿ ïîáåäû ....................................................................................................................... 80 § 9. Îòêðûòèå âûáîðîâ: êàíäèäàò Ï. Ãðóäèíèí .............................................................................. 85 § 10. Êñåíèÿ Ñîá÷àê — enfant terrible âûáîðîâ‑2018 .................................................................. 92 § 11. Ïîëèòè÷åñêèå òåõíîëîãèè íà âûáîðàõ ïðåçèäåíòà ............................................................. 96 § 12. Ïîëèòè÷åñêèå èòîãè ýëåêòîðàëüíîãî öèêëà 2016—2018 ãã. ............................................. 98 Ñïèñîê ëèòåðàòóðû ............................................................................................................... 101 Ë. Ã. Áûçîâ Ãëàâà II. Èäåéíûå ðóáåæè ïîñòêðûìñêîãî êîíñåíñóñà ............................................ 102 2.1. Ïîëèòè÷åñêèé êîíòåêñò òðåòüåãî ïðåçèäåíòñêîãî ñðîêà Â. Ïóòèíà (2012—2018 ãã.) .......................................................................................... 103 2.2. Îáùåñòâåííûé îïòèìèçì — ïðîòèâ êðèçèñà ............................................................ 107 2.3. Ïóòü ê «ïîñòêðûìñêîìó êîíñåíñóñó» ........................................................................... 111 2.4. Èäåéíî-ïîëèòè÷åñêèå îñîáåííîñòè ïîñòêðûìñêîãî êîíñåíñóñà ........................... 116 2.5. Êà÷åñòâî ìîáèëèçîâàííîãî êîíñåðâàòèâíîãî áîëüøèíñòâà ................................. 118 2.6. Ñòðóêòóðà «ìîáèëèçàöèîííîãî êîíñåðâàòèçìà» è àêòóàëüíûå èäåîëîãè÷åñêèå ðàñêîëû ............................................................................................. 121 § 1. Îñíîâíûå ðàñêîëû ................................................................................................................. 121 § 2. Íåäîâîëüñòâî âëàñòüþ: êòî ïðîòèâ? ..................................................................................... 122 § 3. Áîëüøèíñòâî è ìåíüøèíñòâî ................................................................................................. 124 § 4.  Åâðîïó èëè â Àçèþ? ............................................................................................................. 132 § 5. Èäåéíûå ðàñêîëû íà ïðåçèäåíòñêèõ âûáîðàõ 2018 ã. ...................................................... 134 2.7. Îáùåñòâåííûé çàïðîñ íà ïåðåìåíû ......................................................................... 136 § 1. Íàäî ëè ÷òî‑òî ìåíÿòü — è â êàêóþ ñòîðîíó? ....................................................................... 136 § 2. Ïåðñïåêòèâû òðàíñôîðìàöèè ïîëèòè÷åñêîé ñèñòåìû ....................................................... 142 Ñïèñîê ëèòåðàòóðû ............................................................................................................... 145 ×ÀÑÒÜ 2. ÌÅÒÎÄÎËÎÃÈß ÏÎËÈÒÈ×ÅÑÊÎÃÎ ÏÐÎÃÍÎÇÈÐÎÂÀÍÈß Þ. Ì. Áàñêàêîâà Ãëàâà III. Ïðèåìû è ìåòîäû ïîëèòè÷åñêîãî ïðîãíîçèðîâàíèÿ íà âûáîðàõ 2016—2018 ãã. .......................................................................... 149 3.1. Çà÷åì è êàê ìû ïðîãíîçèðóåì ðåçóëüòàòû âûáîðîâ ............................................... 150 § 1. Çà÷åì ìû ïðîãíîçèðóåì ........................................................................................................ 150 § 2. Êàê ìû ïðîãíîçèðóåì ............................................................................................................. 151 § 3. Òðóäíîñòè ïðîãíîçèðîâàíèÿ íåêîíêóðåíòíûõ âûáîðîâ ..................................................... 153 § 4. Êàê îöåíèòü òî÷íîñòü ïðîãíîçîâ ........................................................................................... 154 3.2. Êòî òàêîé «âåðîÿòíûé èçáèðàòåëü»? .......................................................................... 155 § 1. Ìîäåëü Äæ. Ãýëëàïà ................................................................................................................ 155 § 2. Ñîâðåìåííûå ìîäèôèêàöèè ìîäåëè .................................................................................... 157 § 3. Êàê ïðîãíîçèðóþò óðîâåíü ÿâêè ........................................................................................... 160 § 4. Îãðàíè÷åíèÿ ìîäåëè Äæ. Ãýëëàïà ......................................................................................... 161 3.3. Ïðîãíîçíàÿ ìîäåëü ÂÖÈÎÌ è ñöåíàðèè âûáîðîâ 2016 è 2018 ãã. ....................... 162 § 1. Âåðîÿòíîñòíàÿ ìîäåëü ........................................................................................................... 162 § 2. Êâàðòèðíûå è òåëåôîííûå îïðîñû, èëè Êàêèì äàííûì ìîæíî âåðèòü? ........................ 164 § 3. «Ôèãà â êàðìàíå»: êàê îöåíèòü åå çíàê è ìàñøòàá? ........................................................... 171 § 4. Ïðîãíîç ñîöèàëüíîãî îêðóæåíèÿ .......................................................................................... 173 3.4. Ïðîãíîçèðîâàíèå áåç îïðîñîâ .................................................................................. 175 § 1. Ýêñïåðòíûå îïðîñû ................................................................................................................ 175 § 2. Ïðîãíîçíûå ðûíêè: ñðàâíèòåëüíûå ïðåèìóùåñòâà ........................................................... 177 § 3. Ïðîãíîçíûå ðûíêè: ìåõàíèçì ðàáîòû ................................................................................. 178 § 4. Ïðîãíîçíûé ðûíîê ÂÖÈÎÌ (2016—2018 ãã.) ..................................................................... 179 § 5. Ïîðòðåò ó÷àñòíèêîâ Ïðîãíîçíîãî ðûíêà ÂÖÈÎÌ ............................................................... 181 § 6. Äèíàìèêà òîðãîâ è àíàëèç ýôôåêòèâíîñòè Ïðîãíîçíîãî ðûíêà ÂÖÈÎÌ ........................ 183 § 7. Ñðàâíåíèå ïðîãíîçîâ, ïîëó÷åííûõ ðàçíûìè ìåòîäàìè .................................................... 188 3.5. Òðåíäû ñëåäóþùåãî ýëåêòîðàëüíîãî öèêëà .............................................................. 191 Ñïèñîê ëèòåðàòóðû ............................................................................................................... 192 Î. Ë. ×åðíîçóá Ãëàâà IV. Âàëèäíîñòü è òî÷íîñòü èçìåðåíèÿ â ýëåêòîðàëüíûõ ïðîãíîçàõ: ðåàáèëèòàöèÿ ýìîöèé .................................................................................. 195 4.1. Èñòî÷íèêè ýðîçèè âàëèäíîñòè â ýëåêòîðàëüíûõ èññëåäîâàíèÿõ ........................... 195 § 1. Ïðîãíîç ðåçóëüòàòîâ âûáîðîâ: àêòóàëüíîñòü è ïðîáëåìû ðåàëèçàöèè ........................... 195 § 2. Ðåêîíñòðóêöèÿ èñõîäíûõ ïðåäïîñûëîê êîíâåíöèîíàëüíîé ìîäåëè ................................ 198 § 3. Èñòî÷íèêè ýðîçèè âàëèäíîñòè è ïåðñïåêòèâû óëó÷øåíèÿ èçìåðåíèé ............................. 203 4.2. Îò òåîðèè îáîñíîâàííîãî äåéñòâèÿ — ê ìîäåëè ãîòîâíîñòè ñîâåðøèòü äåéñòâèå ..................................................................................................... 207 § 1. Îãðàíè÷åííîñòü ýêîíîìè÷åñêîé ìîäåëè ýëåêòîðàëüíîãî ïîâåäåíèÿ .............................. 208 § 2. Ñîâðåìåííàÿ òåîðèÿ óñòàíîâêè è åå ñîãëàñîâàííîñòè ..................................................... 213 § 3. Îïûò ANES ................................................................................................................................ 214 § 4. Òðåõêîìïîíåíòíàÿ ìîäåëü ôàêòîðîâ ýëåêòîðàëüíîãî ïîâåäåíèÿ íà îñíîâå òåîðèè óñòàíîâêè Ä. Óçíàäçå è òåîðèè ñîãëàñîâàííîñòè Ì. Ðîçåíáåðãà ..................................... 218 4.3. Èçìåðåíèå àôôåêòèâíîé êîìïîíåíòû ýëåêòîðàëüíîé óñòàíîâêè ........................ 222 § 1. Ãðàôè÷åñêèé àññîöèàòèâíûé òåñò îòíîøåíèÿ (ÃÀÒÎ) .......................................................... 222 § 2. Âàëèäèçàöèÿ òåñòà ÃÀÒÎ ......................................................................................................... 224 § 3. Ñðàâíåíèå ðåçóëüòàòîâ òåñòà ÃÀÒÎ è «òåðìîìåòðà îùóùåíèé» ......................................... 232 4.4. Ðàññîãëàñîâàííîñòü êîìïîíåíò óñòàíîâêè íà ýëåêòîðàëüíûå îáúåêòû ............... 238 § 1. Ýìïèðè÷åñêàÿ ïðîâåðêà îðòîãîíàëüíîñòè êîìïîíåíò óñòàíîâêè .................................... 238 § 2. Àíàëèòè÷åñêèé ïîòåíöèàë 2D‑ìîäåëè Ì. Ðîçåíáåðãà ....................................................... 241 4.5. Ïîâûøåíèå òî÷íîñòè ïðîãíîçà çà ñ÷åò ó÷åòà àôôåêòèâíîé êîìïîíåíòû ............ 242 § 1. Îïûò ïðîãíîçèðîâàíèÿ íà âûáîðàõ 2016 ã. ........................................................................ 242 § 2. Ïðîãíîçèðîâàíèå íà âûáîðàõ ïðåçèäåíòà ÐÔ â 2018 ã. ................................................... 245 Ñïèñîê ëèòåðàòóðû ............................................................................................................... 249 ×ÀÑÒÜ 3. ÏÎËÈÒÈ×ÅÑÊÀß ÔÓÒÓÐÎËÎÃÈß Ì. Â. Ìàìîíîâ, È. Â. Ãàâðèëîâ, Ì. À. Âÿäðî Ãëàâà V. Ïîëèòè÷åñêèå ðèñêè ñëåäóþùåãî ýëåêòîðàëüíîãî öèêëà ......................... 258 § 1. Óñëîæíåíèå ñîöèàëüíîé ñòðóêòóðû îáùåñòâà è ïîëèòè÷åñêèå ïîñëåäñòâèÿ ñîöèàëüíî‑ýêîíîìè÷åñêèõ ðåôîðì ..................................................................................... 259 § 2. Óñèëåíèå âëèÿíèÿ íîâûõ êàíàëîâ ïîëèòè÷åñêîé êîììóíèêàöèè ..................................... 262 § 3. Íåñôîðìèðîâàííîñòü ïîçèòèâíîãî îáðàçà áóäóùåãî ........................................................ 263 § 4. Ðàñøèðåíèå îõâàòà è òåìàòèêè ïðîòåñòíûõ àêöèé ............................................................. 264 § 5. Óñèëåíèå ïðîòåñòíûõ íàñòðîåíèé â ìîëîäåæíîé ñðåäå ................................................... 265 § 6. Ñìåùåíèå çàïðîñà íà âåêòîð äåÿòåëüíîñòè ïðåçèäåíòà .................................................. 266 § 7. Ñâåðõïåðñîíàëèçàöèÿ öåíòðàëüíîé âëàñòè è ñëàáîñòü âëàñòè «íà ìåñòàõ» ................... 268 § 8. Ñíèæåíèå óðîâíÿ êîíêóðåíòíîñòè ïàðòèéíîé ñèñòåìû ..................................................... 270 § 9. Ñìåíà ïîêîëåíèé â ðóêîâîäñòâå ðîññèéñêèõ ïàðòèé ......................................................... 271 § 9. Ðàçìûâàíèå îïîðíîé ãðóïïû ïîääåðæêè âëàñòè. Âûñîêèé óðîâåíü ìîáèëüíîñòè ýëåêòîðàòà ........................................................................................................ 274 § 10. Âîçìîæíûé òðèããåð — âûáîðû â Ãîñäóìó‑2021 ............................................................... 275 Î. Ë. ×åðíîçóá Ãëàâà VI. Ïåðñïåêòèâû ýâîëþöèè ðîññèéñêîãî ïîëèòè÷åñêîãî ðåæèìà ................ 278 6.1. «Ïóòèíèçì» êàê ñîöèàëüíûé ôåíîìåí è åãî ðàêóðñû .............................................. 279 § 1. Ïîòðåáíîñòü â íîâîì ïîíÿòèè è åãî îáùåå îïðåäåëåíèå .................................................. 279 § 2. «Ïóòèíèçì» êàê «îðãàíè÷åñêèé àíòèäåìîêðàòèçì» ............................................................. 280 § 3. «Ïóòèíèçì» êàê ïåðñîíàëèçì ................................................................................................ 284 § 4. «Ïóòèíèçì» êàê ôóíêöèîíàëüíîå ÿâëåíèå ........................................................................... 285 § 5. Ïåðèîäèçàöèÿ «ïóòèíèçìà» ................................................................................................... 287 6.2. «Ïóòèíèçì» êàê ðåæèì àâòîðèòàðíîé ìîäåðíèçàöèè .............................................. 289 § 1. Àâòîðèòàðèçì è ìîäåðíèçàöèÿ ............................................................................................. 289 § 2. Ìîäåðíèçàöèÿ Ðîññèè êàê öåëü «ïóòèíèçìà» ...................................................................... 292 6.3. Ïåðñïåêòèâû è âîçìîæíîñòè ïîñòïóòèíñêîãî òðàíçèòà .......................................... 300 § 1. Çàïàäíûå ïðîãíîçû î êîíöå «ïóòèíèçìà» / åãî áåñêîíå÷íîñòè ........................................ 300 § 2. «Êîðèäîðû ðîñòà» è ñóäüáà ðîññèéñêîé ýêîíîìèêè ........................................................... 302 § 3. Ïåðñïåêòèâû ïîñòïóòèíñêîãî òðàíçèòà ................................................................................ 305 6.4. Êîíòóðû «àâòîðèòàðíîãî äåìîêðàòèçìà» êàê ñëåäóþùåé ñòàäèè ðàçâèòèÿ Ðîññèè ........................................................................................................... 307 § 1. Âûáîðû è îïðîñû, èëè ÷åòâåðòàÿ ñòàäèÿ äåìîêðàòèè ........................................................ 307 § 2. «Àâòîðèòàðíûé äåìîêðàòèçì» â äåéñòâèè ........................................................................... 310 § 3. Òðàíçèò îò «ïóòèíèçìà» ê ðàçâèòîìó «àâòîðèòàðíîìó äåìîêðàòèçìó» ............................. 314 Ñïèñîê ëèòåðàòóðû ............................................................................................................... 320Ðóáðèêè: Ïîëèòè÷åñêàÿ ñîöèîëîãèÿ